The probability of failure occurring is extremely high anywhere below 50 degrees Fahrenheit. The graph plots the number of “incidents” per shuttle launch against the calculated temperatures of the O-rings at different launches in the past. The figure below shows a graph from the commission’s report. This experiment was significant to the commission because the outside temperature in Cape Canaveral on the day of Challenger’s launch was a record low at 36 degrees Fahrenheit - roughly 20 degrees colder than any previous shuttle launch. In other words, the rubber ring used for sealing the joints of the fuel tanks is more subject to leakage in colder temperatures than in warm ones. When cooled to a near-freezing temperature, an O-ring will fail to maintain its resilience. Richard Feynman, demonstrated with a small experiment that the rubber O-rings, used to seal the joints of the fuel tanks for the solid rocket boosters, behave differently under different temperature conditions. The investigation of the Challenger disaster was carried out by a presidential commission with members running the gambit from politician to general to astronaut to physicist. This blog post will discuss the statistics that could have predicted the critical failure of an O-ring on that day. Additionally, it was revealed that such an incident was foreseeable. 73 seconds into the flight, the shuttle experienced a critical failure and broke apart in mid air, resulting in the deaths of all seven crewmembers: Christa McAuliffe, Dick Scobee, Judy Resnik, Ellison Onizuka, Ronald McNair, Gregory Jarvis, and Michael Smith.Īfter an investigation into the incident, it was discovered that the failure was caused by an O-ring in the solid rocket booster. On the afternoon of January 28th, 1986 students around America tuned in to watch McAuliffe and six other astronauts launch from Cape Canaveral, Florida. This decision brought a huge amount of public attention to the STS-51-L mission, which would be Challenger’s 25th trip to space and school teacher Christa McAuliffe’s 1st. In 1985, the decision was made to send the first civilian into space. Astronauts were being sent to and from orbit on the same vessel, edging NASA closer and closer to their goal of commercial space flight. NASA was experiencing success after success in their relatively new Space Shuttle program. The 1980s marked a very exciting time for NASA and space exploration. For those who have yet to watch the documentary or who are unfamiliar with Challenger’s story, I’ll start with a brief overview. After watching the series, I was inspired to explore the simple statistical modeling that describes the event. I recently watched the 2020 Netflix docuseries entitled Challenger: The Final Flight, which tells the fascinating yet heartbreaking story of the tragedy of NASA’s Challenger space shuttle. The simple statistics that demonstrate the high probability of the Challenger disaster occurring Introduction
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